First of all if you were one of those that took part in the Stop at a winner comments request then a big thank you.
Looking at the comment they seem to fall into 4 main categories...
1. I work so can not follow the 3 selections.
We do provide a link to work with the Grey Horse Bot which will automatically run the selections and we are looking at a bespoke bot just for this service, which should be ready shortly and will be free to all members.
The selections still make a profit if you just bet on all 3 (see results
2. I run my own systems.
If you fall into this category then great. It really is good to hear people have found their own way of making money from the horses. It’s not easy doing it yourself so it’s great you managed to do it.
Stan knows how to this, that is why he manages to get such a high strike rate from his selections.
Sometimes it can be easier to just employ and expert rather than trying to figure out how to do it yourself.
There were a few comments which seemed to be a misunderstanding of how SAW works.
“Needing to use staking to make it work...”
This isn't actually true.
Considering that most days you can stop after the first selection you have to agree the profit is pretty impressive and that’s without any staking.
We have given you some idea for staking if that suits you...
..But it doesn't need it.
“If the system works then you should be able to use all the selections.”
Yes you can and they are still profitable.
Stan has always used them as a SAW and that’s why we decided that this was the best way to promote the selections but Stan always said “they win a lot”
And considering we have started 2015 with two full winning days and overall a strike rate of 57.89% then I think you will agree you can follow them all.
“I tried SAW backing at level stakes since I cannot afford to allow the stakes to build up. Using level stakes the prices available mean that you need a winner in the first race or you can easily end up losing on the day.”
That’s correct…if you use level staking then sometimes you lose on the day…
…But isn’t that true of whatever system you use?
I doubt if there is a system now or ever that makes profit everyday.
“It’s not about winning a single battle it’s about winning the war…”
And we are winning the war.
Yes we have days when we lose on all 3 or when we don’t make any profit but over the month we are ending up in profit at level stakes.
"Why not offer a free trial or pay as you go?"
We offer the first 7 days at £4.95.
We don’t offer a free trial because we only want people who are serious about giving the service a fair trial.
Unfortunately history has taught us that this doesn't happen when you give things for free.
Even though this is only a small commitment, it is normally enough for you to at least watch the selections and decide if they suit you.
It also ensures that you think seriously about if this service is for you before you make even this small commitment.
We are not trying to trap people into joining…
If within those 7 days you want to leave…we make it easy.
You can use the cancel link provided by email or in the member’s area.
You can email us.
You can even ring us on the phone.
If you want a comparison (my own experience)…
Join one of the well know credit rating companies and see how easy they make it to cancel…
No way of doing it on the site and so you have to call them and then go through lots of different departments then argue with an operator until they finally agree!
There is also a major tv & film (pay monthly cancel at any time) company that does the same.
We don’t do that…You can cancel easily and quickly.
4. Low odds.
Since we started SAW this has been the one thing we have heard the most and continue to hear.
Now don’t get me wrong I have been doing this for over 12 years and I know and understand all the arguments “for” and “against” low prices.
I am also a “ROI” type person which would normally mean I would have to think carefully about using SAW.
People talk about “value a lot in this industry.
This is where you select runners that have a better chance of winning than their price would suggest.
This isn’t just about picking high priced runners it is about understanding enough about each runner in a race, to decide, if everyone else has it wrong.
And so you can get the runner and a premium price.
If you can do this often enough the value in the bet will make you profit.
Its sounds great…The problem is of course not many people can do it well.
Now most people tell you there is no value in favourites.
This statement is a little misplaced because people use it to describe “all favourites”.
In other words if you follow all favourites blindly then you won’t make a profit.
People forget to mention that this is the same is you follow all second favourites, third favourites and so on.
Following any groups of runners based on position will produce “no” profit.
So I ran an experiment for you.
I ran a test that took in a range of selections based on the prices that roughly we are seeing with Stan’s selections.
The price range ended up from 1.11 (Stan’s lowest winner to date) to 2.70.
This gave the same over all average price of 1.03 so should mean we are similar runners.
Now Stan has had winners higher than this but I wanted to get as close to the SAW averages as possible.
Over the last 27 months there were a total of 7962 selections that fell into this price range.
(This range wasn’t specific to any one race type it covered all racing)
3936 won giving a strike rate of 49.43%
Just under 50% of the time.
Winning on the horses is about balancing strike rate against Price.
To make a profit these two have to work together.
So these 50% winning bets have to cover the 50% losing bets.
This means that all 50 winning bets have to make back more than 1 point each (averagely).
The average for this search was 1.03 but they lost 169 points…
Taking off Betfair’s commission they only actually made 0.98 points per point.
0.98 x 3936 (winners) = 3857 points profit
3857pts – 4026 (losers) = -169
Stan on the other hand has a strike rate of 65.48%...
…Which is why his selections do make a profit.
(Note: All SAW results are minus Betfair’s 5% commission)
I also did a random sample based on the second letter of the horse name.
This produced a slightly lower strike rate of 47.13
So although Stan's selections are probably not finding value what he is doing is finding more winners than the average odds would suggest he should be finding.
If the average odds stay similar and he continues to keep the strike rate above 52% then SAW will be profitable.
Another way of explaining profit is using Return on Investment.
ROI is just the amount of money you make for every 1 pt you put into the market.
At the moment SAW is showing a ROI of 29.7%
That means for every 1pt you spend you get 0.297 pts back.
In real money it means…
For every £10 you spend you get back £2.97 in profit (averagely over time).
There is one more thing I want to talk about when it comes to looking for “value” and I think this is the main reason people fail when it comes to following high priced systems.
Let me give you and example.
Elision is a system we have been testing to Grey Horse bot members for the last few months.
It has a strike rate of 13.24% but is showing a profit of 1091.69 (over 2.5 years).
If that is not finding value then I don’t know what is.
BUT...On the outside this looks great I mean since testing we have had a 51.39 points month and a 40.32 month.
And if I was one of those marketers that when for the big launch and went out “all guns blazing” I could probably make a small fortune.
And 100’s of people would sign-up based on the profit and the last few months testing.
They would…Maybe not you, but people would…because they are only looking at profit.
But I can tell you from experience not many would last the course...even if the system went on performing as it is.
The Longest Losing Run so far is 45
The Predicted losing run is 56
If you signed up to a service like that could you honestly tell me that you would still be betting after 40 losers in a row?
And from experience again I can tell you the answer in most cases is “NO”.
There are two reasons why people can not stay the course.
1. Human nature.
Even though all the statistics are there before hand. If you join and you start losing there are so many horror stories going through your head about other failed systems, lost money that even after 5 losers in a row you could be ready to pull the plug.
2. Stakes and Bank
Honestly most people don’t have a bank roll big enough to follow such a system and even if they do they tend to use much larger stakes than they should.
I think Elision is a great system but if you are going to follow it you better know exactly what to expect.
And this is a problem with many of the value system ideas out there.
The strike rates mean you have to put up with long losing runs and that puts people off in the end.
SAW on the other hand gives you a lot of winners and you don’t have to wait too long for one.
Just to balance out the comments...
"Extremely happy with SAW, I find enhanced with the spreadsheet, which enables you to optimise your betting % dependent on how risk averse you are. Very easy to follow and place bets. Very good win %. Depending on my "findings" I place doubles/trebles which are also successful (although at lower sake levels) & profitable. So I am extremely happy with SAW."
"Very consistent service, some prices are very short but you cannot fault the strike rate. Selections are never late. I would highly recommend this service."
"I started the SAAW service on the 13th November, and as of today my bank has now grown by 253%.
So for me making 11 points in November and December has allowed me to more than double my bank in a little under 2 months.
So if this carries on I would be more than happy."
I hope this has been useful for you and will help you make up your mind about SAW